The Death Of Ruth Bader Ginsburg... Is There a Trojan Horse At The Gate?

What does the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg mean?

The sadness of her passing is a terrible blow for those many who cared for her, and obviously for her family and personal friends... but it is particularly of interest in the American political universe as well. With only a few weeks left before the election, there are ramifications across multiple aspects.

The assumption might be that McConnell, despite his moves to deny Obama his appointment, will move heaven and earth to appoint the fifth firm conservative to the Supreme Court, and that Trump will jump at the chance... but wait. It might be a trojan horse.

First of all, there is no assurance that McConnell will have the votes to do so. Romney is a likely no, but so is Murkowski from Alaska. With a 53-47 split, it is unlikely that Collins of Maine can vote for a new justice and survive her tough reelection campaign. IF Collins yielded to pressure and chose to vote a justice over the next weeks, then would that decision confirm the flip of the Senate to Democratic control next year?

Second, Trump has held up the election of the next justice as one of the motivations for his reelection... would giving up that obvious chip be worth risking the loss of the those voters who detest him, but detest more the idea of a democrat nominating her replacement?

Third, while the Republican Senators have been willing to accept the likely admonitions of history for their support of Trumpism, will all of the remaining 50 go this far, and be forever identified with a final betrayal by rushing through whatever is the first candidate for the highest court? As we saw with Kavenaugh, you can assume that the confirmation process will be contentious and emotional... will there be a willingness to simply force that issue in the midst of an election, and the risk of public disgust?

There are any number of rife outcomes here, all of them dynamic and evolving as we speak. Here's one:

The process of forcing through a fifth conservative justice in record time could well cost the Senate any chance of holding the majority in 2020, by confirming the rejection of Republican incumbents in close races. It could put the final nail in Trump's reelection chances, removing one of the compelling arguments for conservatives who otherwise have no use for him... between McConnell's efficiency in converting the judiciary and the placement of the Supreme Court in solid conservative hands, the intellectual arguments for putting up with Trump will be weakened or eliminated.

That is the Trojan Horse element here -- that, in forcing through a justice, the Republican's find themselves out of power for several years at least, facing a demographic shift in the country that will drive them to reconsider their positions, or remain disfavored for untold terms. Once in power, the Democrats will have opportunities to establish strong voter rights protections that will enshrine that the majority can be counted, and if they are able to establish statehood for D.C. and Puerto Rico, push the Republicans into a highly difficult position to retain power.

The options are high for a Pyrrhic victory, where the win in the Supreme Court is balanced by a long term loss in the other two branches.

And here's one more possibility... if McConnell believes the White House and Congress to be likely lost, he may well drive the confirmation as a last gasp effort, looking for that legacy. In so doing, it may both confirm the losses, and open the door for something that would have otherwise been unthinkable...

Watch for Schumer to make one move here: to quietly float the idea that, should the confirmation be pushed through, a Democratic Senate would next term vote to expand the Court from 9 to 11 or more, as has been done in previous circumstances, recasting the balance. He'll probably feel compelled to deny it publicly, but watch to see if his contacts in the media and think tanks take that mantle for him.

An amazing time in an unprecedented year... but not the clear outcome that it appears to be. Much to analyze, much to watch as the powers that be evaluate not only a seat, but the balance of power, with both potentially telling for a generation or more.