The Future Of Baseball Seems Crystal Clear | Major League Baseball Latest News

In the abject mess that is 2020, our sports are as compromised as any other part of our universe, and baseball perhaps the most of them all. A season that sort of began was stopped, then subjected to an ugly battle between billionaire owners and millionaire players over decimal points. The two sides are visibly preparing for war after the 2021 season while dancing around the virus in their camps and hotel rooms. But these are momentary crises, temporary intrusions… the real damage to the sport is occurring more privately, in board rooms and zoom chats between the powers that be.

In the shadow of the coming Collective Bargaining Agreement is the expiration of the contract between Major League Baseball and Minor League Baseball, the governing agreement that ties the teams that we all know and watches to the 160 existing affiliated clubs, spread across the country and over several levels of play. That contract expires a year earlier, this September. In an opening salvo, MLB has dictated a reduction of 42 of the 160 teams, gutting the lower levels. Even with that concession, there is no guarantee that MLB will renew its agreement, and it is possible, even likely, that they don’t intend to.

Sigh.

Consider this Possible Outcome

MLB disbands the existing Minor League Baseball, electing instead to allow each team to manage its own player development program. Major League teams then determine to carry only two levels, one at AAA and one at AA, with the AAA roster stocked with 25 players, and the AA rosters carrying 30 players. The remainder of their player development could be captured inside of their rookie or camp facilities. This would reduce the “minors” to only 60 teams, saving the major league teams millions and limiting the annual amateur draft to 10 rounds, or enough players to round out their two lower rosters.

The bulk of early player development would be pushed down to the collegiate level, whether through the four-year programs or JUCO ranks. Players not eligible for — or particularly interested in — those schools would have to scramble for opportunities overseas or with Independent League teams domestically; such leagues might well proliferate, taking over a few of the newly abandoned stadiums in minor league towns. When the AA teams needed more bodies, they could raid those leagues for players.

It is entirely likely that MLB teams would consider a 55 player pool to draw from more than sufficient for their needs, and manage accordingly. The reduced payroll and bonus pool for drafting would be attractive, and any diminished preparation or quality would be invisible to the public so long as all of the teams followed the same restrictions.

And let’s be clear: the quality would diminish.

Scouts are consistent in their belief that it takes at least 2,000 minor leagues at-bats to properly prepare a hitter for the majors. Consider these numbers: Mike Trout: 2,200+; Christian Yellich: 2,100+; Cody Bellinger: 2,300+; Mookie Betts: 2,300+. Hitting a round baseball with a round bat is widely considered one of the most challenging basic sports skills, and one requires extensive experience to practice at the highest levels. The elimination of the lower minor leagues would likely cut the available development by half or more, leading to bringing players up to the bigs with 1,000 at-bats or much less.

Drawing from a tangibly smaller talent pool, baseball would miss out on good players who, for one reason or another, develop at a slower or later pace. By definition, taking the best players from a reduced pool means less total talent as well. Inevitably, the reduction in available jobs will change the considerations for athletes who play multiple sports, particularly in northern and urban markets where playing baseball requires a more aggressive commitment. Finally, the movement of young players up to the majors earlier in their development, while expanding the competitive advantage for veterans means that careers will be likely longer, reducing turnover and opportunities for new players.

Should they choose that path, baseball owners will be a little bit richer, and the sport a little bit poorer. Over 100 cities across America will lose their own field of dreams, and millions will no longer wander over to a park to watch a kid who might someday be on their TV sets. Thousands of players every year will lose their own dreams, and the chance to say that they were one of the relative few to get paid to play a game. Fans will see a product that has been constantly watered down and disrespected by its guardians, one that will likely feature perfect balls and strikes (thanks to a computer), a clock telling the pitcher to hurry, and players who — in more human times — would have still been learning their craft, roaming the field.

I guess us old-timers will still boo the umpires, or whatever robot replaces them. We’ll ignore the clock as best we can, basking in the sunlight of the remaining day games. We’ll cluck about the greenness of the rooks, and note that they couldn’t carry the jocks of our childhood heroes (and be a little more righteous about it).

And for those of us who can, we’ll wander over to the local high school, sit up in the rickety stands and wonder whether the big-armed lefty has what it takes… but it won’t be the same, not nearly.

It won’t be the pros.